July 7, 2022
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the smart security industry has presented many uncertainties and complexities. At the same time, faced with thorny issues such as upstream and downstream supply chain imbalances, rising raw material prices, and chip shortages, the entire industry seems to be shrouded in fog.
However, opportunities and challenges coexist. The "New Infrastructure" in 2020 and the "14th Five-Year Plan" in 2021 will bring new opportunities for development in areas such as smart cities, safe communities, smart finance, smart campuses, smart medical care, and rail transit, as well as new opportunities for security. development trend.
Some time ago, Seagate Technology held an online live broadcast of "Seagate Security Data New Path", in which Zhu Wenzhi, a senior analyst of security technology research at Omdia, shared Omdia's analysis of the current and future "development trends of the smart security industry" , the following is the full text of his speech:
Omdia conducts market research on the current situation of the intelligent video surveillance market every year, and will conduct a detailed analysis of the entire market according to different dimensions such as different product categories, technical parameters, regions and industries.
According to Omdia research, in 2020, the size of the global intelligent video surveillance market will reach 22.6 billion US dollars, of which China's size is about 11.3 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 50%.
Compared with the overall market situation in 2019, it actually increased by 2.2% in 2020. Due to the relatively small impact of the epidemic, the Chinese market increased by 6.4%, while the growth in other regions outside China only decreased by 1.6%.
It is worth noting that the overall market is driven by the hot-selling solution for thermal imaging of the human body in 2020.
From the perspective of network camera shipments, Omdia found that global network camera shipments will reach 120 million in 2020. Compared with previous years, its growth rate is bottoming out. Basically, the overall shipment volume has kept pace with the remained flat in 2019.
Global IPC shipment growth is largely stagnant in 2020, but shipments will grow at an annual rate of about 10% between 2020 and 2025.
However, Omdia expects that in 2021, due to the normalization of the global anti-epidemic and the rapid recovery of the economy, the market growth rate will rebound rapidly. It is expected that in the next five years, IPC shipments will grow at an annual rate of nearly 10%.
It is also worth noting that China's IPC shipments will reach 90 million in 2020, accounting for 78% of the world's total. This is due to China's excellent anti-epidemic performance, and the market impact is the lowest in the world.
Looking further, the shipments of network cameras are divided according to different pixels. In 2020, the overall market shipments will be concentrated between 2 million and 5 million pixels. Among them, 2 million to 3 million pixels are the mainstream of the market, occupying the 54% share.
Shipments of 4k and above resolution devices are expected to grow at an annual rate of more than 30% in the next five years.
In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic and some geopolitical influences, the global supply chain has had a huge impact, especially on China's chip market.
According to Odmia's investigation, the shipment of 4k image sensors with more than 4 megapixels is growing rapidly. Omdia judges that in the future, the shipment of such cameras with 4k high pixels and more than 4 megapixels will increase significantly. It is expected that in 2022 In 2010, the shipments of 4-5 million pixels will exceed 2-3 million pixels, becoming the mainstream of a market.
From the data just now, it can be seen that the shipment of cameras is growing rapidly every year, and the shipments of increasingly high-definition cameras are also gradually increasing.
From another point of view, the rapid growth of high-pixel camera shipments and the prolonged video retention time have also driven the demand for video storage and the market’s demand for storage capacity.
In 2020, 120 million network cameras will be shipped worldwide, and by 2025, the compound annual growth rate of shipments will be about 10%. The proportion of webcams over 4 megapixels shipped in 2020 reached 42% and will grow to 74% in 2025.
Most industries require video surveillance footage to be kept for at least 30 days, and China requires that video image information in key areas be kept for at least 90 days.
Omdia found that in 2019, the total market volume of one shipment reached 11.2 billion exabytes, and this number is expected to double to more than 20 billion exabytes in 2024.
In recent years, artificial intelligence technology has developed rapidly. At present, various countries and governments have placed artificial intelligence in a relatively high strategic position. The penetration rate of smart front-end continues to increase steadily, and China leads the world.
According to the latest data from Omdia, in 2020, the shipment penetration rate of global AI network cameras will reach more than 15%, and China will be close to 19%. It is expected that by 2025, the global penetration rate of AI cameras will increase to 64%. At 72%, China is far ahead in the world in terms of AI penetration and acceptance.
Omdia also released the 2020 global intelligent video surveillance market share ranking list.
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The ranking counts different product categories according to the sales of the manufacturer's own brand, including intelligent video surveillance equipment (including professional-grade surveillance cameras, video recorders, video analysis equipment, video surveillance software and related accessories, excluding vehicle and home video surveillance equipment) and intelligent video surveillance related infrastructure (including independent video analysis software, servers, hyper-converged equipment, and external storage, plus a human thermal imaging temperature measurement system).
In 2020, the global intelligent video surveillance market will reach 22.65 billion US dollars, and the global top 10 manufacturers have a market share of 60%. Hikvision and Dahua still maintain their leading market share.
The intelligent security market is transforming in the direction of high definition and intelligence. What are the trends in the video surveillance market in 2021?
The deployment of large-scale high-definition smart video devices has spawned a distributed architecture based on the Internet of Things. The shipment of higher-definition cameras and smarter cameras has put a lot of pressure on the computing power, network, and storage of the entire video surveillance system, which also puts forward a new requirement for the system architecture.
In the past, video processing was often concentrated in the back-end and cloud center for centralized processing. Now, due to the development of artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing and 5G technology, the current cloud-edge-end-based three-layer Internet of Things has gradually emerged. Distributed Architecture.
01
The development of front-end intelligence is accelerating, and the application scenarios are diverse.
For front-end cameras, due to the limitation of computing power and cost, some intelligent functions can only perform some simple tasks, such as the identification of people, vehicles, and objects.
Now, due to the significant increase in computing power and the significant reduction in cost, some complex tasks can also be performed on the front end, such as video structuring and image growth technology.
02
The penetration rate of intelligent back-end continues to increase, and China leads the world.
The intelligent penetration rate of the back-end is also constantly improving.
In 2020, global shipments of back-end devices will reach 21 million units, of which 10% are smart devices, and China will reach 16%. It is estimated that in 2025, the penetration rate of the global AI terminal segment will increase to 39%, of which China will reach 53% .
03
The explosive growth of massive data has promoted the construction of a security center.
Due to the continuous intelligence of front-end and back-end equipment, the penetration rate continues to increase, and a large amount of structured and unstructured data is generated. The data shows an explosive growth state, which promotes the construction of the security center.
How to make better use of these data and mine the value behind the data is a task that the security center needs to undertake.
The concept of middle platform: originated from the Internet, abstracts general technical capabilities, forms some reusable capability sets, and provides shared services and standard application interfaces for upper-layer applications.
The content of Zhongtai mainly includes the following three levels:
Business middle-office - for different industries, encapsulate general business capabilities;
Technology middle-office - the underlying basic capabilities, including big data, cloud computing, AI and other capabilities, are integrated to provide external services;
Data Middle Office - Manage and govern data.
04
The hybrid deployment of video surveillance combined with cloud and edge will become the mainstream.
At present, the construction of the security center is in full swing, and it has been generally accepted in some large-scale projects.
Another trend is the combination of cloud and edge. For cloud services used in video surveillance, Omdia specializes in video surveillance and services. The results show that at present, the market is mainly based on local storage, and then managed on the cloud. It is a deployment mode of video surveillance, and this deployment mode is mainly private.
However, it is expected that the overall market direction is evolving towards hybrid deployment, that is, data is transferred to the cloud, then managed in the cloud and managed locally. It is estimated that in 2024, the hybrid deployment mode will account for 56% .
05
The proportion of investment in various industries reflects the acceleration of intelligent construction.
A case of intelligent landing in various industries.
We have divided the entire smart security market into different end-user industries. The industries with the highest proportions are: urban accounting for 16%, transportation accounting for 15%, government accounting for 11%, business accounting for 10%, and financial accounting for 10%. 9% and education 8%.
06
Intelligent video surveillance empowers all walks of life.
In recent years, governments around the world have been gradually promoting the digitalization of cities, and projects such as safe cities and smart cities have emerged one after another, which has also promoted the progress of urban security intelligence. According to the market size of each industry and the future growth potential, the city will have a relatively large scale of growth in the future.
Another industry with high growth potential is transportation. The transportation here includes a large transportation, road transportation, rail transportation, airports and ports, etc. The transportation has a relatively large growth potential in recent years, because in recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization. With the continuous acceleration, some infrastructure construction of road traffic is also continuously invested.
Governments of various countries have also introduced some policies one after another, especially after the 2020 epidemic, some governments have launched some infrastructure construction projects in order to stimulate economic development, of which transportation accounts for a large part. Omdia predicts that the future intelligent The implementation of security in the transportation industry will develop rapidly.
There are also several industries that are relatively small now, but still have relatively large growth potential, such as data centers, industrial, manufacturing, utilities and energy.
Summarize
According to Omdia's latest research, the global smart video surveillance market will reach US$22.6 billion in 2020. The epidemic has had a serious impact on the security industry, while China's impact is relatively small. Omdia estimates that in 2020, the revenue of the Chinese market will account for the global share of The proportion of IPC reached 50%, and the proportion of IPC shipments in the world reached 78%.
The degree of intelligence continues to deepen, and the penetration rate of intelligent equipment is gradually increasing. Among them, China is a leading region in the world in intelligent development. It is expected that the penetration rate of intelligent front-end equipment in China will reach more than 70% in 2025, and the back-end will also reach 50%. % or more, it is rapidly entering the era of intelligent video.
In addition, the continuous high-definition and intelligence of security has also spawned a cloud-edge-end distributed system architecture suitable for the development of this video Internet of Things. The penetration rate of intelligent equipment continues to increase, and massive amounts of data are generated. The construction of the middle platform and the combination of cloud and edge will also become an important direction for future deployment.
Finally, smart security has blossomed in all walks of life, and the construction of smart security is also accelerating, and the market size is expected to continue to expand in the future.
